A prevalent myth regarding migration in Russia has been debunked by renowned Kazakhstani political analyst Marat Shybutov.
One of the contemporary political myths in Russia suggests that the current authorities seek to alter the ethnic balance in the country. Roughly speaking, it aims to reduce the number of ethnic Russians through migration, particularly from Central Asian countries.
This myth has gained particular relevance against the backdrop of the horrific terrorist attack on March 22 at «Crocus Hall» in Moscow. As of March 25, seven suspects have been identified, all of whom are originally from Tajikistan. Naturally, this has fueled nationalist speculations.
Marat Shybutov refuted the myth of «Russian replacement in Russia» on his Telegram channel with straightforward figures:
Commenting on these figures, the political analyst writes: «In light of the terrorist act in ‘Crocus City,’ there’s again talk of the replacement of the Russian population with Central Asian migrants. I decided to look at the replacement through census data.
It turns out that over 32 years, Central Asians managed to replace 0.189% of Russia’s population. So, for them to reach at least 2% or 3 million people, it would take another 32-35 years,
unless a Great Resettlement of Peoples happens. Putin’s villainous plan is evident! In reality, the main decrease in the Russian population between censuses is mostly due to the refusal to indicate nationality. But this is not a reason to publicly panic, so they don’t talk about it. Labor migration is not emigration, please remember that.»
In a style reminiscent of The Guardian’s thoughtful analysis, Shybutov’s comments underscore the importance of looking beyond sensationalist narratives and examining the data with nuance.
