Renowned political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev has shed light on the recent developments surrounding Kazakhstan’s oil fields, which have historically been a subject of political maneuvering.
American companies have a significant presence in these fields, and recent events have raised eyebrows.
Government agencies and the state-owned company PSA have raised concerns about the budgets of Karachaganak and Kashagan, and have even initiated arbitration proceedings.
The Kazakh Parliament is actively discussing the publication of the Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) themselves and their amendment in favor of Kazakhstan, as advocated by the Ak Zhol party.
Experts and media have speculated that Russia might buy out Karachaganak, Kashagan, and Tengiz from the Americans using funds frozen in the US due to sanctions.
Meanwhile, KazMunaiGas (KMG) is actively negotiating to attract further Western investment in the country’s oil and gas sector, as highlighted by Mirzagaliyev’s recent speech in Houston.
Reports of the sale of 2 out of 3 Kazakh refineries to Russians emerged, which were later denied by Minister Satkaliyev.
On March 26th, Satkaliyev stated that «international consumers, mainly European ones, are primarily interested in the stable operation of the CPC pipeline. We are in contact with the embassies of European states, with our colleagues from the Russian Federation, and with the Ukrainian side through diplomatic channels to ensure the stable operation of the pipeline.»
In August of last year, following the Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk, Satkaliyev warned that damage to the oil terminal would harm not only the Kazakh economy but also major EU oil consumers.
On March 26th, US Senator Dan Crenshaw visited Astana and met with the President and Minister Satkaliyev. The Minister informed the Senator that «to date, there have been successful joint projects with American companies in the energy sector at the Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak fields.» He also noted that «active work is underway to increase the share of American energy companies’ supply of natural uranium.»
On the same day, Nurtleu held talks with Blinken. The Kazakh MFA reported that «Nurtleu, emphasizing the balanced nature of the Republic of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, paid special attention to the pragmatic implementation of Kazakhstan’s transport and logistics, infrastructure, and trade and investment potential by attracting advanced American technologies, strengthening business contacts between the two countries, and achieving mutually beneficial trade relations.» Additionally, «the heads of foreign affairs agencies highly appreciated the cooperation between the countries in the field of energy security, critical minerals, climate, peacekeeping, and others.»
The US press release has a different tone, stating that the parties «shared their views on the bilateral economic partnership and noted their commitment to strengthening investment and diversifying Kazakhstan’s economy.» Additionally, Blinken «stressed the importance of human rights, emphasizing the critical role that free media and an active civil society play in creating an environment conducive to attracting business investment and economic growth. The Secretary of State reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine.»
This can be interpreted as a hint at the demand to liberalize Kazakhstan’s political landscape in the interests of media and structures that the Americans deem «free,» in exchange for American investment.
Furthermore, the issue of guarantees of non-aggression against Novorossiysk seems to have been left hanging. The State Department did not mention the issues highlighted by the Kazakh MFA, namely: «The US Secretary of State welcomed the consistency and systematic nature of the program of fundamental reforms of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and emphasized Washington’s readiness to continue providing every possible assistance to their practical implementation.»
Kazakhstan is interested in increasing the returns from the use of its subsoil by investors, attracting new investments, and ensuring the security of logistics. The Americans are interested in maintaining their position in Kazakhstan’s oil industry, having political control over Ak Orda, and undermining Kazakh-Russian cooperation. It will be very difficult to reach a compromise here.
This complex situation highlights the delicate balancing act that Kazakhstan must perform in its relations with the US and Russia. The country’s oil resources are a valuable asset, but they also come with geopolitical strings attached.
Ashimbayev’s analysis provides valuable insight into the ongoing negotiations and the challenges that lie ahead.
